4 Units New Orleans - 13.5 @ Rams
While usually teams run in order to open up the pass, it just wont work in this game. SJax will get some yardage and maybe a score, but I dont give the Rams passing attack more than 1 TD. Therefore, I see something like 30-14 Saints. They have reached the point where a fluke loss to a Ram or Bucs team in the next 2 weeks isnt gonig to happen, the thought of an undefeated season is I'm sure well in their heads by now and it'll motivate them to crush the Rams this week.
2 Units on Miami - 10 VS Tampa
Miami is an impressive bad team to me. The double digit line really shows how unimpressed vegas is with Tampa even while beating Green Bay. Therefore, I think Miami finally has their breakout game. If they want any thought of a wild card berth, they cant possibly lose this game. They've hung with New Orleans and New England, and will probably win by more than 10. 27-13 Miami
1 Unit on Cincy +7 @ Pittsburgh
This is an eff you game for the Bengals. A big eff you you for no one taking them serious. We will take them serious after this one as they beat Pittsburgh who is hung over after a Monday Night Football win.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Thursday, November 5, 2009
21-11-1 +30 units going into week 9
4 Units Philly - 3 VS Dallas (Loss)
Philly's defense is why I'm taking Philly. Dallas has scored on KC, Atlanta and Seattles D the past 3 weeks (all wins) but Philly's blizting + Romos tendencies to hold onto the ball and not throw it away will cause some turnovers. Phillys defense+special teams helps Philly win this one with at least one TD. Lay the 3 points
4 Units on Atlanta -10 VS Washington (Win)
Atlanta cant go to 4-4 and keep their playoff hopes going. Washington players are already planning their vacation during superbowl week. An awful Washington secondary is just what the doctor ordered for underachieiving as of late Matt Ryan. 10 really isnt much to give up against the skins.
1 Unit on SD Chargers +4.5 @ Giants (Win)
Backed the Giants last week because there was no way theyd lose 3 in a row, they are a good team...right? Nope, Giants are overrated, their proving it with 3 losses in a row. I saw they win this one by 3, giving SD a cover (31-28 Giants)
1 Units on Packers -9.5 @ Tampa (Loss)
Tampa just wants this season to end. While the Packers have not been overimpressive, its Tampa...
No units on Houston to beat Indy because I'm not confident in that pick, but thats a good potential upset pick this week. Houston always plays Indy tough.
Philly's defense is why I'm taking Philly. Dallas has scored on KC, Atlanta and Seattles D the past 3 weeks (all wins) but Philly's blizting + Romos tendencies to hold onto the ball and not throw it away will cause some turnovers. Phillys defense+special teams helps Philly win this one with at least one TD. Lay the 3 points
4 Units on Atlanta -10 VS Washington (Win)
Atlanta cant go to 4-4 and keep their playoff hopes going. Washington players are already planning their vacation during superbowl week. An awful Washington secondary is just what the doctor ordered for underachieiving as of late Matt Ryan. 10 really isnt much to give up against the skins.
1 Unit on SD Chargers +4.5 @ Giants (Win)
Backed the Giants last week because there was no way theyd lose 3 in a row, they are a good team...right? Nope, Giants are overrated, their proving it with 3 losses in a row. I saw they win this one by 3, giving SD a cover (31-28 Giants)
1 Units on Packers -9.5 @ Tampa (Loss)
Tampa just wants this season to end. While the Packers have not been overimpressive, its Tampa...
No units on Houston to beat Indy because I'm not confident in that pick, but thats a good potential upset pick this week. Houston always plays Indy tough.
Friday, October 30, 2009
Week 8 picks
18-10-1 on season +24 units going into week 8 picks
4 Units Houston – 3 at Buffalo (buying a half a point) (WIN)
Houston is having trouble “pulling away” from teams. They built up a double digit lead vs SF but let SF back into the game and eventually pushed their line this week. I do not see them dominating the Bills, rather I see them giving up some major rush yards to the duo of Jackson and lynch, but in the end, they will force Fitzpatrick to beat them, and in turn should just cover this line. I see something like 24-20 or 27-23 Houston, a 4 point win.
2 units Tennessee – 3 VS Jacksonville (WIN)
Every logical thing says to go for the Jags WITH 3 points. Better record, better talent, better QB and they’ve won a freakin game! (and also didn’t lose by 59). Shouldn’t Tennesse be GETTING points in this one? Well they are not, and that is precisely why I’m betting them. Vegas is begging you to take Jax with 3 points. And when a game goes against logic, there is a big question mark in my mind. Take Tennessee led by, gulp, vince young.
1 Unit on Giants (Pick) @ Philly. (LOSS)
Giants cant lose 3 in a row…can they? To me, Philly just has not looked very good, like an “elite” team. Nor has the Giants…but if pride and motivation have any factor, I say the Giants win by at least a field goal. Donovan hasn’t looked particularly great, westbrook aint gonna play, philly’s on a short week (AND LOST TO THE RAIDERS). I’ll take the Giants.
1 Unit on Minnesotta +3 @ Green Bay (WIN)
They hung in there and easily should/could have won in Pitt. Oh and they have AP. That’s enough for me to say this one will be close. Gimme the points.
4 Units Houston – 3 at Buffalo (buying a half a point) (WIN)
Houston is having trouble “pulling away” from teams. They built up a double digit lead vs SF but let SF back into the game and eventually pushed their line this week. I do not see them dominating the Bills, rather I see them giving up some major rush yards to the duo of Jackson and lynch, but in the end, they will force Fitzpatrick to beat them, and in turn should just cover this line. I see something like 24-20 or 27-23 Houston, a 4 point win.
2 units Tennessee – 3 VS Jacksonville (WIN)
Every logical thing says to go for the Jags WITH 3 points. Better record, better talent, better QB and they’ve won a freakin game! (and also didn’t lose by 59). Shouldn’t Tennesse be GETTING points in this one? Well they are not, and that is precisely why I’m betting them. Vegas is begging you to take Jax with 3 points. And when a game goes against logic, there is a big question mark in my mind. Take Tennessee led by, gulp, vince young.
1 Unit on Giants (Pick) @ Philly. (LOSS)
Giants cant lose 3 in a row…can they? To me, Philly just has not looked very good, like an “elite” team. Nor has the Giants…but if pride and motivation have any factor, I say the Giants win by at least a field goal. Donovan hasn’t looked particularly great, westbrook aint gonna play, philly’s on a short week (AND LOST TO THE RAIDERS). I’ll take the Giants.
1 Unit on Minnesotta +3 @ Green Bay (WIN)
They hung in there and easily should/could have won in Pitt. Oh and they have AP. That’s enough for me to say this one will be close. Gimme the points.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Week 7 picks
Tim to take down vegas. All my picks this week are 4 unit picks. Early picks so I can get the early lines...
4 Units on Minnesota +4 @ Pittsburgh (LOSS)
Just personal opinion, not too impressed with Pittsburgh. I feel like they have been playing in close games which should not be close for a dominant team. Therefore, I do not see Pitt as a dominant team. So an undefeated team getting more than a field goal vs a team which hasnt played like defending champs? I'll roll with the Vikes.
4 units on Cardinals +7 @ Giants (WIN)
Just a feeling this one will be close.
4 Units on Eagles -7 @ Washington (WIN)
I think last week was an exception to the rule, and in primetime the Eagles are going to show up and take out their anger on someone. I'll lay a TD in this one.
4 Units on New Orleans -6.5 @ Miami. (WIN)
The Saints have won all 5 of their games by double digits. I'll gladly lay 6.5
4 Units on Minnesota +4 @ Pittsburgh (LOSS)
Just personal opinion, not too impressed with Pittsburgh. I feel like they have been playing in close games which should not be close for a dominant team. Therefore, I do not see Pitt as a dominant team. So an undefeated team getting more than a field goal vs a team which hasnt played like defending champs? I'll roll with the Vikes.
4 units on Cardinals +7 @ Giants (WIN)
Just a feeling this one will be close.
4 Units on Eagles -7 @ Washington (WIN)
I think last week was an exception to the rule, and in primetime the Eagles are going to show up and take out their anger on someone. I'll lay a TD in this one.
4 Units on New Orleans -6.5 @ Miami. (WIN)
The Saints have won all 5 of their games by double digits. I'll gladly lay 6.5
Friday, October 16, 2009
week 6 NFL
>
4 units on a 6.5 point teaser
Chiefs +13
(@ Redskins)
Patriots – 2.5
(VS Titans)
I was surprised to see the skins favored by almost a TD, so now with 13 points I feel very comfortable. I think we see close game with a potential Chiefs win. Maybe 21-20 Chiefs? And if the Patriots cant cover less than a field goal at home versus the Titans…ten I’ll probably retire from sports betting altogether.(win)
4 Units
I was expeting a close to 20 point line. What person would put any money on the Raiders? Maybe that’s what vegas wants me to think, but until the Raiders show they can trade points with anyone, I’ll keep laying 2 touchdowns. (loss)
2 units on Jets -9.5 VS Buffalo
Bufllo scored 3 points on the Browns defense. Count with me…1..2..3. Jets are pissed. And at home. ‘nuff said (loss)
1 unit on
I’m not buying into the upset special I’ve been hearing from some “experts”.
Overall, 2-2 on the week for a loss of 1 unit.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
WEEK 5 (11-5-1 SEASON +19 UNITS)
My week 5 picks with short explanation..
Going with the Sunday morning lines...
2 Units Vikings -10 (buying 1 point) (WIN)
Could be a trap game, but Favre looks good, AP is AP and Jared Allen doesnt even see an offensive line in front of him, all he see's is a big target where the QB stands. This game could easily be 31-7 or 31-14....Almost have to take the risk even if it does seem like a strange line with the way Minn is playing.
4units on the Patriots -3 (LOSS)
I keep telling myself one of these weeks will be the 40 point explosion. I know I know the Denver defense blah blah blah. I dont care, one of these weeks its going to happen no matter what the defense out there has done. As far as I'm concerned the games against Cleveland and Oakland do not count, so the only good offense Denver has faced is Dallas, and even that is debateable. Without Fred Taylor, we may see Belichick commit to the pass. And I like the Pats odds to win if they let Tom loose for 40 or 50 passes.
2 units on colts -3.5 (WIN)
Can we all just give in and agree that Tennessee is just not good? If David Garrard can carve up their defense, I think Peyton wont have trouble. BUT just in case I may buy 1 point down to 2.5 so I get the win if Colts let Tennessee stay in the game.
2 units on the Jets (LOSS)
Normally I'd say put 4 units on the jets, but the "expert picks" and all the reading I've done people seem to think Miami will stay in the game. After seeing what the Jets D did to Brady and Co. a few weeks back, I'm convinced that Chad Henne will have trouble this week. But just in case, I'll be conservative.
I have a good feeling about going 4-0 this week!!
(RESULT: 2-2 FOR -2 UNITS)
Going with the Sunday morning lines...
2 Units Vikings -10 (buying 1 point) (WIN)
Could be a trap game, but Favre looks good, AP is AP and Jared Allen doesnt even see an offensive line in front of him, all he see's is a big target where the QB stands. This game could easily be 31-7 or 31-14....Almost have to take the risk even if it does seem like a strange line with the way Minn is playing.
4units on the Patriots -3 (LOSS)
I keep telling myself one of these weeks will be the 40 point explosion. I know I know the Denver defense blah blah blah. I dont care, one of these weeks its going to happen no matter what the defense out there has done. As far as I'm concerned the games against Cleveland and Oakland do not count, so the only good offense Denver has faced is Dallas, and even that is debateable. Without Fred Taylor, we may see Belichick commit to the pass. And I like the Pats odds to win if they let Tom loose for 40 or 50 passes.
2 units on colts -3.5 (WIN)
Can we all just give in and agree that Tennessee is just not good? If David Garrard can carve up their defense, I think Peyton wont have trouble. BUT just in case I may buy 1 point down to 2.5 so I get the win if Colts let Tennessee stay in the game.
2 units on the Jets (LOSS)
Normally I'd say put 4 units on the jets, but the "expert picks" and all the reading I've done people seem to think Miami will stay in the game. After seeing what the Jets D did to Brady and Co. a few weeks back, I'm convinced that Chad Henne will have trouble this week. But just in case, I'll be conservative.
I have a good feeling about going 4-0 this week!!
(RESULT: 2-2 FOR -2 UNITS)
Saturday, October 3, 2009
Late addition:
4 units Patriots -1.5 VS Ravens (WIN)
Ravens have played Chiefs, Chargers and Browns. And gave up 24 points to KC and 26 to SD before shutting down the Browns. I dont know why people are crowning them superbowl champions already, they have not been challenged. Theres a reason vegas isnt giving in to the hype over the Ravens and given points to the Pats. Its because the pats will win tomorrow, and cover comfortably.
4 units Patriots -1.5 VS Ravens (WIN)
Ravens have played Chiefs, Chargers and Browns. And gave up 24 points to KC and 26 to SD before shutting down the Browns. I dont know why people are crowning them superbowl champions already, they have not been challenged. Theres a reason vegas isnt giving in to the hype over the Ravens and given points to the Pats. Its because the pats will win tomorrow, and cover comfortably.
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